In my neverending quest to rail against the BCS, I am calculating week-by-week how many games this college football season really “count” (as in, influence the national title picture).
After five weeks, 82 of the 120 FBS teams cannot make the BCS championship (a refresher on my criteria), including JoePa’s Nittany Lions. We can start breaking it down a little more now that we’re reducing the field.
Teams Who Can Afford a Loss:
These are teams that are undefeated in a BCS conference or who have one loss while having started the year in the Top 10 (and so can conceivably, like LSU in 2007, make the title game with two losses). I’d like to point out how lenient I’m being here. The way this season is going, Alabama and Ohio State are likely the only schools on this list that could make the title game with a loss.
Alabama
Arizona
Auburn
Florida
Iowa
Kansas State (who are actually in the category below this after Thursday night’s loss)
LSU
Michigan
Michigan State
Missouri
Nebraska
Northwestern
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Oregon
Teams Who Will Officially Be Eliminated With Their Next Loss:
These are teams who have either one loss in a BCS conference or are undefeated in a non-AQ. Again, there’s a fair amount of leniency. Chances are, even if Baylor and Syracuse run the table, the title game isn’t calling. Only Boise State and TCU have any legit shot at the championship, and even their odds are slim at this point.
Arkansas
Baylor
Boise State
Colorado
Florida State
Illinois
Indiana
Maryland
Miami
NC State
Nevada
South Carolina
South Florida
Stanford
Syracuse
TCU
Texas
Texas A&M
Utah
Virginia Tech
West Virginia
Wisconsin
That Sets Up This Week’s Elimination Games:
Florida State at Miami
Arkansas v. Texas A&M
Syracuse at South Florida
(I know. When @insidetheBCS talks about huge regular-season games, these are the ones he means.)
Teams Who Are Already Eliminated (week and why):
Air Force (eliminated before Week 4; MWC with a loss)
Akron (1; MAC team)
Arizona State (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)
Arkansas State (1; Sun Belt team)
Army (3; non-ND independent with a loss)
Ball State (1; MAC team)
Boston College (6; ACC team with two losses)
Bowling Green (1; MAC team)
Brigham Young (3; MWC with a loss)
Buffalo (1; MAC team)
California (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)
Central Michigan (1; MAC team)
Cincinnati (4; Big East team with two losses)
Clemson (6; ACC team with two losses)
Colorado State (2; MWC with a loss)
Connecticut (4; Big East team with two losses)
Duke (4; ACC team with two losses)
East Carolina (4; C-USA with a loss)
Eastern Michigan (1; MAC team)
Florida Atlantic (1; Sun Belt team)
Florida International (1; Sun Belt team)
Fresno State (5; WAC with a loss)
Georgia (4; SEC team with two losses)
Georgia Tech (5; ACC team with two losses)
Hawaii (2; WAC with a loss)
Houston (4; C-USA with a loss)
Idaho (3; WAC with a loss)
Iowa State (4; Big 12 team with two losses)
Kansas (4; Big 12 team with two losses)
Kent State (1; MAC team)
Kentucky (6; SEC team with two losses)
Louisiana Tech (3; WAC with a loss)
Louisiana-Lafayette (1; Sun Belt team)
Louisiana-Monroe (1; Sun Belt team)
Louisville (4; Big East team with two losses)
Marshall (2; C-USA with a loss)
Memphis (2; C-USA with a loss)
Miami, Ohio (1; MAC team)
Middle Tennessee (1; Sun Belt team)
Minnesota (4; Big Ten team with two losses)
Mississippi (4; SEC team with two losses)
Mississippi State (4; SEC team with two losses)
Navy (2; non-ND independent with a loss)
New Mexico (2; MWC with a loss)
New Mexico State (3; WAC with a loss)
North Carolina (4; ACC team with two losses)
North Texas (1; Sun Belt team)
Northern Illinois (1; MAC team)
Notre Dame (4; independent with two losses)
Ohio (1; MAC team)
Oregon State (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)
Penn State (6; Big Ten team with two losses)
Pittsburgh (5; Big East team with two losses)
Purdue (5; Big Ten team with two losses)
Rice (2; C-USA with a loss)
Rutgers (6; Big East team with two losses)
San Diego State (4; MWC with a loss)
San Jose State (2; WAC with a loss)
SMU (2; C-USA with a loss)
Southern Mississippi (2; C-USA with a loss)
Temple (1; MAC team)
Tennessee (4; SEC team with two losses)
Texas Tech (6; Big 12 team with two losses)
Toledo (1; MAC team)
Troy (1; Sun Belt team)
Tulane (3; C-USA with a loss)
Tulsa (2; C-USA with a loss)
UAB (2; C-USA with a loss)
UCF (3; C-USA with a loss)
UCLA (3; PAC-10 team with two losses)
UNLV (2; MWC with a loss)
USC (1; ineligible)
Utah State (2; WAC with a loss)
UTEP (3; C-USA with a loss)
Vanderbilt (3; SEC team with two losses)
Virginia (6; ACC team with two losses)
Wake Forest (5; ACC team with two losses)
Washington (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)
Washington State (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)
Western Kentucky (1; Sun Belt team)
Western Michigan (1; MAC team)
Wyoming (3; MWC with a loss)
***
And so the math for this week:
55 Week 6 Games Involving FBS Teams
30 Games Between Teams with No Chance to Make Title Game
25 Week 6 Games Count
45.5% of Week 6 Games Count
Yep, for the first time this season, only six weeks in, fewer than 50% of the games matter.
***
After five weeks:
316 Games Played
233 Counted
73.7% of Games in 2010 Have Counted
***
457 Games Involving FBS Teams Left in 2010 Season (including conference championships)
219 Games Left in 2010 Season Count
47.9% of Games Left in 2010 Season Count
