Posts Tagged ‘joe lunardi’

The Double Bonus: An Eye for an Eye

Tim in black; John in red.

As we approach Selection Sunday, we’re inundated with various criteria to whittle down to the most deserving 65 teams.* There’s the record, RPI, records against the RPI top 50, strength of schedule, and of course, the “Eye Test.”

*It is NOT the best 65; it is the most deserving 65.

I hate the Eye Test.

The Eye Test works neither theoretically nor practically. In what other aspects of life is the Eye Test appropriate?

You may not have made the right diagnosis, but you looked like you  knew what you were doing. Congratulations, Doc, you’ve passed my Eye Test.

The Eye Test is college basketball’s equivalent of Josh’s beloved Handwriting Effect. It’s a way to impose overly subjective measures into a process that should limit subjectivity as much as possible. And while the Selection Committee is subjective, it’s subjective within objective boundaries. By this I mean the Committee applies a subjective weight to objective measures. They may prioritize overall and conference records differently, but those records are set. It’s not like someone’s saying, “Well, Seton Hall looks more like a 22-9 team instead of 19-12 in my book.” Continue reading

In Search of 65, Week 4

MIDWEST SOUTH WEST EAST
1 Kansas Kentucky Syracuse Duke
2 Pittsburgh Villanova Kansas State Purdue
3 Ohio State New Mexico Vanderbilt West Virginia
4 Wisconsin Michigan State Temple Georgetown
5 Tennessee Texas A&M Baylor Butler
6 Texas Maryland BYU Gonzaga
7 Xavier Missouri Wake Forest UNLV
8 Northern Iowa Marquette Florida Richmond
9 Louisville Clemson UAB Oklahoma State
10 Florida State California Connecticut Georgia Tech
11 Utah State Illinois Rhode Island Mississippi State
12 Siena UTEP Old Dominion Saint Mary’s
13 Kent State Cornell Murray State Northeastern
14 Sam Houston State Oakland Charleston Western Kentucky
15 Morgan State Coastal Carolina Weber State Pacific
16 Lehigh v. Jackson State Belmont Vermont Robert Morris

Continue reading

In Search of 65, Week 2

MIDWEST SOUTH WEST EAST
1 Kansas Kentucky Syracuse Villanova
2 Purdue Michigan State Kansas State Duke
3 West Virginia Georgetown Wisconsin Ohio State
4 New Mexico Wake Forest Gonzaga Texas
5 Pittsburgh Texas A&M BYU Temple
6 Maryland Tennessee Vanderbilt Butler
7 Baylor Xavier Georgia Tech Missouri
8 California Marquette Mississippi UNLV
9 Richmond Charlotte Virginia Tech Illinois
10 Northern Iowa Siena Dayton Louisville
11 Florida Florida State South Florida UTEP
12 Saint Mary’s Cornell UAB Old Dominion
13 Utah State Northeastern Charleston Murray State
14 Kent State Coastal Carolina Oakland Sam Houston State
15 Belmont Weber State Pacific Morgan State
16 Arkansas State v. Jackson State Lehigh Vermont Robert Morris

Continue reading

In Search of 65, Week 1

You didn’t honestly expect us to do a weekly column on college basketball and not include bracket predictions (or a bracketology, as ESPN has conditioned us to call it), did you? My qualifications are as follows: This is, unbelievably to me, the eighth year I’ve tried to predict the field. I started before I knew who Joe Lunardi was and largely because I was sick of losing NCAA Tournament pools to people who didn’t know anything about college basketball. I decided to try to predict the field, which requires a much higher level of NCAA knowledge and is a lot more impressive than it sounds (it comes down to two or three teams a year).

In my seven previous tries, I’ve gotten 64, 64, 63, 62, 63, 64, and 64–which is nice and palindromic and leads me to believe this is the year I break the cycle and nail 65. Add it up and I’m 444/455, or 97.58% accurate. (For the record, yes, I did leave George Mason out in 2006 and I stand by it. Last year it was Arizona.)

Now, the key difference between my bracket and those offered by Lunardi and most everyone else on the Internet right now is that mine is predictive; it is NOT a reflection of what the Tournament would look like if it started today. That’s why my bracket includes teams like Louisville and Marquette–who I expect to get important wins down the stretch–and not someone like Oklahoma State–who I expect to slip in the Big 12. I admit that my knowledge of the lower conferences is sketchy at best; I haven’t seen those teams to play and err on the side of conservatism in choosing who to take from the SWAC and its ilk. Most of those selections are the team that’s currently leading the conference. Continue reading

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