Championship Sunday Live-Blog: AFC Championship

Since Tim decided to dub Championship Sunday the most exciting football day of the year (and since we’ll be too busy having fun during the Super Bowl), we felt it necessary to pull out all the stops with a live-blog.Tim, John S, and Josh will all be here during the day as the Jets battle the Colts and the Saints host the Vikings.

6:16, JOHN S — Well, I was neither especially wrong about the Jets nor especially devastated by this loss. But it was nice to see the Jets give the Colts a run for their money. NPI will be back in a few with the NFC Championship game…

6:14, JOSH — It’s been a fun season. Can’t complain about making the AFC Championship game with a Rookie Coach and QB. I look forward to upgrading our secondary and adding another receiving option in the offseason and making another run. I’m out for the NFC Championship coverage (you know, I go to law school and have work and such), but it’s been fun. 

6:12, TIM — I just want to say that, for as much as I’ve killed them all season, the Jets had a very impressive year. They’re right up there with “Teams I’ve Been Most Wrong About.” And they were fun to watch. It will be interesting to see how they do next year in what should be a loaded AFC East (yeah, Chan Gailey’s gonna work wonders in Buffalo).

6:10, TIM — Totally agree, John S. Unless Nantz and Simms can definitively prove that the Colts would have lost this game if they had not rested their starters the last two weeks, they’re on thin ice. (Although, the Colts did look especially fresh down the stretch…)

6:08, JOSH — The Jets are moving the ball so well now!

6:07, JOHN S — I don’t know, it can work. People like watching rich people get humiliated, especially in this economy.

6:06, TIM — Can you believe CBS is using the famed post-Super Bowl window on “Undercover Boss”? Do they actually think that can succeed? Why isn’t that airing in the summer?

6:05, JOHN S — Why does this validate the “resting” strategy? Aren’t the Colts simply better than the Jets? This so stupid. The Colts slapped their fans in the face by benching their starters. None of this post hoc, ergo propter hoc shit. 

6:03, JOSH — Do you bring Curtis Painter in for this drive? 

6:02, JOSH — That looked like a [failed] RB Screen! 

6:01, TIM — Man, that Pop Warner team covered like the Jets, am I right?

6:00, JOSH — Yeah, especially since it’s going to appear to our readers that you made that “prediction” AFTER the field goal. Egg all over.

5:59, TIM — Boy do I have egg on my face!

5:57, TIM — The Colts should still go for it because Matt Stover is almost certain to miss this field goal.

5:56, TIM — Yeah, the real losers in the Haiti earthquake are the Jets; otherwise, Garcon wouldn’t have tried that hard, and they would have won this game easily.

5:55, JOSH — But, he’s “using the earthquake…as a motivation to excel in these playoffs.”

5:54, TIM — And I think New Orleans wins the inspiration-off, mainly because that was a whole city and Pierre Garcon wasn’t even born in Haiti. He’s such a fraud.

5:51, TIM — Phil Simms was impressed with how Bill Polian came to decide on Peyton Manning in the Draft? He had the FIRST PICK! That’s how he made that decision.

5:47, JOHN S — If the Saints win the next game, does that set up a great inspiration-off, between Katrina and the Haiti earthquake (because of the Garcon connection)?

5:43, TIM — It’s what the Jets couldn’t let happen. Down two scores, the running game and play-action passing become impotent.

5:42, JOSH — Peyton Manning: Greatest QB of all time*? 

*Excluding Bubby Brister

5:41, JOHN S: Tim, only you could be worrying about how Eli Manning’s feeling at a time like this. What are you, a Kia dealer?

5:40, JOSH — Yeah, John, it’s really just a factor of who the Jets decide to double cover. Garcon, Clark, and Collie have all dominated at different times. Pick your poison. 

5:39, TIM — I feel bad for Eli Manning having to watch this. Peyton set the bar so high for “Excitement Showed by One Brother for Another Brother’s Success,” and Eli can’t possibly live up to that, especially given his tranquil nature. It’s been a rough two months for Elisha.

5:38, JOHN S — Don’t be so defeatist, Josh. But yeah, that’s probably it.

5:37, JOSH — That’s the game.

5:37, JOHN S — Hey Josh, you wanna retract that “Dallas Clark not a factor” comment?

5:36, JOSH — Believe it or not “Baba O’Riley” is not one of their big concert songs compared to the other two. 

5:35, JOSH — The delayed blitz doesn’t work against the Colts since Manning gets rid of it so quickly; they need to take that out of the game plan. 

5:34, TIM — Would The Who really not do “Baba O’Riley”?

5:33, TIM — Just in case you guys were wondering, anything related to this game is still behind “Vikings” and “#HowtobeaBITCH” as a trending topic on Twitter. (Unless you count Haiti as being related to this game, you know, with how well Garcon is playing.)

5:32, JOHN S — ZING!

5:30, TIM — Odds of Stover getting hurt are roughly equivalent to the odds of Nate Kaeding making a big field goal. 

5:29, JOHN S — Those are pretty good guesses. I could see them doing “Won’t Get Fooled Again,” though, instead of Pinball Wizard.

5:28, JOSH — Predictions for The Who halftime songs? I predict Pinball Wizard, a new song, and My Generation. 

5:27, JOHN S — Did Phil Simms just say “fakitude”?

5:25, JOHN S — Tim, what are the odds of Matt Stover getting injured? I mean, is there a more reliable kicker in the NFL?

5:23, JOSH — They need to stop running between Woody and Moore so much on the right side. The Colts see it coming.

5:22, TIM — Just in case you’re wondering, Colts’ punter Pat McAfee is a choker as a placekicker. They’re in trouble if Stover gets hurt.

5:19, TIM — And it’s like EXACTLY seven months before the start of the 2010 NFL season!

5:18, JOSH — With Joe Gibbs locked in a cage?

5:17, JOHN S — Tim, don’t tease me like that.

5:15, TIM — Yeah, a Buck-Aikman-O’Brien booth would be the best in the business. With Caliendo on the sideline!

5:13, JOHN S — Can we cool it with the shots at Fox? It is, after all, the future home of Conan O’Brien.

5:12, TIM — True. I totally watch Fox for the sex appeal of Pam Oliver and Laura Okmin

5:12, JOSH — Nantz usually just throws the information in as an update. I’m sure they have someone down there but, unlike Fox, CBS is about showing the game, not putting on a show. 

5:11, TIM — Sounds like Greene is done, which is terrible news for the Jets. What I’m wondering is this: CBS doesn’t usually use a sideline reporter. The network has added Steve Tasker for this game, and they’ll have Tasker and Solomon Wilcots on the sidelines for the Super Bowl. Josh, you watch more CBS than I do for football: Do they still get injury info this quickly? Does Nantz just throw it in? And if so, who procures the info for them, and why isn’t this person afforded the opportunity to go on screen?

5:10, JOSH — Wow, is that the first roughing the passer penalty that has ever been missed by the Refs?

5:09, TIM — In terms of aesthetics, John, the Colts would gain a lot by making a small change to their field. Currently, their 20-yard lines are outlined in red, white, and blue. If they made this a blue/white/blue outline, though, in order to match their uniforms, it would look a lot cooler.

5:07, JOSH — Good point: I’m curious what’s happening with Dallas Clark. Is he being double-covered? He’s been a total non-factor. 

5:07, TIM — Can they keep anyone in single coverage if it’s not Revis. I mean, Garcon is their third-best receiver, right?

5:07, JOSH — The Jets are 0-5 this season in games in which opposing teams score 20 points or more. 

5:06, JOHN S — Oh come on, give me a break. Don’t I have free rein on something like this?

5:05, TIM — It’s accurate, which is where the pleasure is derived from. Aesthetically, I have no problems with it. And it’s a cedilla, John, not a serifed C, and especially not a seraphed C. (It has no angelic value.)

5:04, JOSH — They can’t keep Garcon in single coverageunless it’s Revis doing the coverage. 

5:02, JOHN S — Yeah, those examples seem like fans seizing on particular failures and missing the general trend. I’ve touched on this before. Meanwhile, the Colts just took the lead back. Josh, you may have picked out your Super Bowl song too early.

5:01, TIM — Kaeding obviously comes to mind as a kicker who chokes. He’s an 87% kicker in the regular season and 8 of 15 in the playoffs (although two of those misses were 54+ yards). 

Mike Vanderjagt also has a reputation for choking. He’s an 86.5% kicker in the regular season and is 11 of 14 in the postseason. It’s just that he missed his two biggest attempts (potential game-winner in OT v. MIA in 2000 and potential game-tyer v. PIT in 2005) by a LOT.

4:58, JOHN S — Tim, given your rigid standards for uniform decorum, what is your opinion on the aesthetic value on the seraphed C on Garcon’s jersey?

4:57, JOSH — Interesting findings, Tim. While I won’t make you do this research, it would be interesting to see if individual kickers are statistically worse in the playoffs. I suspect some individuals would be more prone to choking than others. 

4:56, TIM — Interesting that the Jets threw the ball there. In a similar scenario–albeit on 3rd-and-16 in the first half–New York ran it, got five yards, and made the FG easier for Feely. Make that number 17 of 30, and I can envision Facebook status updates along the lines of Jay F’n Feely later this evening. 

4:55, TIM — By the way, my halftime research indicates that, from 2005-2008 in the playoffs, field-goal kickers were 128 of 152, or 84%–so better than the regular-season numbers. If anything, pressure is GOOD for kickers.

This year, though, kickers are just 17 of 29 in the postseason–easily the worst among the last five postseasons.

4:54, JOHN S — Clearly Jay Feely choked on that 52 yarder, right Josh?

4:52, JOSH — That sideline catch by Cotchery is becoming pretty signature. 

4:50, JOSH — Simms just repeated my comment about the sending less people in on the blitz. This is worrisome that Greene’s shaken up. 

4:44, TIM — As Dan Marino said during the half, although the Colts are running the ball successfully (for the most part), a run is still a victory for the Jets. If I’m Indianapolis, I spread the Jets out, force them to use five and six defensive backs (when they’re not deep in that area), and run a no-huddle at all times. You don’t need to snap it right away, but you’ll limit the substitutions New York can make and undermine its blitzing schemes.

For the Jets on offense, keep doing what you’re doing, aside from the ultra-conservatism at times. I expect New York to be more effective on the ground this half.

4:42, JOSH — I can’t complain with a 17-13 lead in the first half.  A concern for me is that the Colts are doing a pretty solid job picking up the Jets’ running game, limiting them to 47 yards on the ground. Greene should be in 75% of the running plays, but needs to cover the ball with both hands once he’s in the process of being tackled: There were several near fumbles. The defense looks pretty solid, but as I anticipated, the biggest worry is the secondary receivers: Collie already has 105 yards, Garcon has 70. With a not-very-talented DB crew beyond Revis, the only thing you can hope for on the blitz is continued turnovers and that it penetrates the offensive line and gets to Manning quickly. While I don’t support prevent, I wouldn’t mind sending 5 guys in instead of 7 or 8 if it means being able to double-cover Garcon and/or Collie.

4:32, TIM — Because you’re trying to waste time. You have the lead, you get the ball first in the second half, why risk anything?

4:31, JOSH — Why the hell doesn’t Jones go out of bounds there?

4:30, JOSH — This happened last week on SD’s first TD. Uncovered secondary target in the back of the end zone.

4:27, TIM — The Jets are fortunate Indy has only one timeout left; otherwise, the Colts could get the ball back before the end of the half (b/c you KNOW they’d be running it).

4:27, JOHN S — This could be a devastating momentum swing heading into halftime…

4:26, JOSH — Interesting comment by Simms about Ryan apologizing for softening up last week towards the end. That’s good that Ryan has that in mind because perhaps when Manning is the most dangerous is the last 2 minutes of each half. No reason to play prevent then.

4:21, JOSH — Either of those plays is where a RB screen would have been appropriate. (2nd and 3rd down, that is).

It’s great we got that field goal, but John is right. When we take a lead, Schotty does tend to go into super-conservative mode and that’s certainly deleterious. He needs to still do the play-actions and keep up with the creativity.

4:21, JOHN S — Looks like “Schotty” may be getting a bit complacent.

4:20, TIM — Let’s bump Schotty down to A-.

4:19, JOSH — I hate that play call. They did this several times last game: 2nd and 12 runs to the right with Thomas Jones. It rarely works.

4:18, TIM — Isn’t this all just setting the Jets fans up for second-half heartbreak, though, Josh?

4:17, JOSH — [Insert exclamatory comment here]!!!!!!!

4:14, JOSH — I was not expecting it to be 14-6 at this point. Schotty’s playcalling has been A+ so far today.

4:13, TIM — I don’t know about Beanie. I always found “D’Brickashaw Ferguson” to be a particularly cute name.

4:12, JOSH — Sanchez managed the pressure with remarkable POISE. Seriously.

4:10, JOSH — Would you guys agree that Beanie Wells is the cutest name in the NFL?

4:09, JOHN — Phil Simms: “It’s a good thing (Sanchez) has….” Me thinking: “Say poise. Say poise.” Simms: “….unbelievably large hands.” Close enough!

4:08, JOSH — I do play action on either first or second down here.

4:07, TIM — And Jimmy Nantz just made the same mistake I did last week by calling the Cardinals’ running back “Bonzi” Wells instead of Beanie.

4:06, JOSH — How spot on have I been?

4:06, TIM — Josh is all over it again. We know someone who doesn’t read NPI: the Indianapolis Colts.

4:05, JOHN S — I wonder if Dungy is texting ideas to Caldwell. Wow, it’s a pretty sad commentary on Jim Caldwell that he makes Tony Dungy look like a cerebral, lively coach by comparison.

4:04, TIM — Psh, Team Leno!!!

4:02, JOSH — Ever? Probs not.

Tim, are you going to watch The Simpsons‘ top 10?

4:02, JOHN — Will the Colts ever score a touchdown again?

4:01, JOSH — Pace did a great job on that stop.

3:59, TIM — I think he is a player/coach right now. Come on, Jim Caldwell? Although I take it back. Going for the sneak there was not only dumb, but predictable. If I’m Indy, I would have spread the Jets out with three wides and Clark, and maybe run out of that formation (if you’re married to running it in). Once Peyton rushed to the line and the Jets recovered, the whole ploy of the “sneak” is transparent.

3:59, JOSH — I could see why Peyton would be a great player/coach. But, why last?

3:58, JOHN S — Man, Tim, is there a bigger fan of CBS programming than you? And you haven’t even mentioned Survivor: Heroes v. Villains yet.

3:57, TIM — I think Peyton Manning is probably going to be the last successful player/coach in NFL history.

3:55, TIM — Jim Nantz is gonna be on How I Met Your Mother?????!!!!!! Best. News. Ever!!!!

3:54, JOSH — 12 men on the field; just what I worried about. And, shame on CBS for not even getting that live.

3:53, TIM — Good pregame call, Josh. Peyton gotcha.

3:52, JOSH — So, I’m not suggesting we’re going to win, but if the Jets do go to the Super Bowl, I totally support ripping off the Steelers Super Bowl song (“Pittsburgh’s going to the Suuuuper Bowl…Here we go….”): I love it.

3:49, TIM — Taylor Swift is gonna be on CSI:?????!!!!! Best. News. EVER!!!

3:48, JOSH — John, admittedly, I was a bit surprised he made the catch. To quote Bill Simmons: “That reminds me: Have you ever thought about the irony of Braylon being a wide receiver who can’t catch? That has to be the only position in sports in which someone can lack the only crucial quality for the position but still make a good living. He can run, he can block, he can knock guys over. … If he could only learn how to catch! Um, what? Isn’t it a yes-or-no thing? It would be like me having a column if I couldn’t type. Thtt wlud eb ridcucclus.”

3:47, JOSH — PERFECT PLAY CALL!!! Passing on 1st and 2nd down? Check.

3:47, JOHN S — Was anyone else shocked that Edwards actually caught that?

3:45, TIM — Another overblown story based on anecdotes: Braylon Edwards dropping balls, am I right?

3:43, JOSH — And, you’re against using anecdotes? Geeze.

3:43, JOHN S — And Matt Stover just made one, so QED.

3:42, JOSH — I’m happy to get out of that drive only giving up a Field Goal, assuming pressure doesn’t make Matt Stover choke. We need to stay within one score at all times to stay in this game. It would have been nice to be 3-3, but I’ll take 3-0 for now.

3:42, JOHN — That’s looking at a sample of 8 GAMES!

3:41, JOSH — Yes, there is.

3:41, JOHN S — IS there a statistically significant difference? Or are we focusing on four missed FGs (one of which was from 57 yards)?

3:40, JOSH — If there is a statistically significant difference and it occurs in the playoffs or in situations where the game is close (where you could expect more pressure), the best causal story for it is that it’s due to pressure. What other causal story is there for a statistically significant difference? Kickers not trying as hard?

3:38, JOHN S — Poor participation? Ouch.

3:37, TIM — I attribute John’s poor participation in this live-blog to pressure.

3:36, JOHN S — “Pressure” is not something that is at all quantifiable or standard. Who feels pressure and how much in different situations varies from kicker to kicker. You can’t just assert that someone is feeling pressure because it’s the playoffs. Particularly given the fact that a lot of these misses are not occurring in end-of-game situations. Sometimes people just miss.

3:35, JOSH — This is why I hate Lito Sheppard. He’s pretty good with physical receivers, but he’s just a lousy cover corner with not a lot of speed. Garcon-Sheppard is a big mismatch.

3:35, JOHN S — It didn’t take long for Sheppard to prove his value, huh?

3:34, TIM — Even if you’re rooting for the Jets (Josh), don’t you feel good for Pierre Garcon?

3:33, JOSH — Eh, I don’t know. Besides isolation, the key is immense pressure. Soccer players may occasionally have times during the game where they shoot in isolation but the pressure isn’t there.

3:31, JOHN S — But FG kickers are ALWAYS isolated, whereas soccer players are in an unfamiliar situation. Isn’t that a key distinction?

3:31, JOSH — Tim, because he’s better. He can break more tackles and gets more YPC.

John, you ignore what’s similar. In both cases, one player is isolated from the rest of evry other player AND they are kicking! Although, I don’t think it’s just kicking. I’m sure it holds for free-throws in pressure situations too. Isolation is the key.

3:31, JOHN S — I’m just happy to see Tim Allen working. I was a big fan of Home Improvement. I didn’t watch it, but just the fact he was making it….

3:30, JOSH — Tim and John, would you rather see that or the new Tim Allen movie? It could be the next Santa Clause!

3:29, JOHN S — Josh, you see no reason why penalty kicks would be different from field goals? How about the fact the penalty kicks do not correspond to any live-game situation at all. They are a completely contrived aspect of the game. Whereas field goal kicking is one of the only tasks ever performed by an NFL kicker. Both of you are relying on anecdotal evidence and unjustified assumptions.

3:27, TIM — Is that because Greene runs with a different style (that I haven’t noticed…he’s not exactly a scatback), or just because he’s better?

3:27, JOSH — I’m okay running with Greene on 3rd and 8 occasionally; not a fan at all running with Jones there.

3:26, TIM — Bold playcalling there. Even a draw is too risky for this offense.

3:26, TIM — That has a chance to be the worst movie ever. Seriously. I wanted to leave during the trailer.

3:25, JOHN — Wow, Tim, doesn’t this Bruce Willis/Tracy Morgan movie look good?

3:24, JOSH — This explains the mechanism of pressure causing choking on penalty kicks and supports it empirically and I see no reason why it would be different in football. In these 2009-2010 playoffs, kickers are missing FGs statistically significantly more than during the regular season. It’s not even close. I don’t believe there is any empirical study establishing your implied argument either over a multi-year period. But, the causal mechanism is definitely there.

3:23, TIM — Well, teams made 81.3% of field goals this season. That number in the playoffs is a lot lower. And sure, it’s a small sample size, but I don’t have the time to look at the numbers from the playoffs for the last decade or so right now.

3:20, JOHN — Do you have any concrete evidence at all to back that up? Or are you just going to leave it at “hard to deny”?

3:20, JOSH — Didn’t see that, Tim. That may be my favorite sibling story besides Holly Mangold.

3:19, JOSH — Not quite a choke, but, it’s hard to deny that the added pressure of playoff kicks systematically lead to more chokes in field goal kicking in the playoffs.

3:18, JOHN S — What a choke!

3:17, TIM — Did you see the Star-Ledger feature on Shonn Greene, Josh? And the names of his siblings? Shonnece, Shonte, Shonreke, Shonray and Shontray.

3:16, JOSH — Glad to see Shonn Greene in on the first drive

3:16, TIM — And the green pants have never looked good.

3:15, JOSH — I’d say different. Precise actually means something.

3:14, TIM — P.S. It’s Corrente reffing. He’s one of the best.

3:14, JOHN — Does “precise” count as a variant of “poise”? Or is that a different tally?

3:14, JOSH — Tim, I don’t mind the all-white uniforms but I prefer green pants. No idea why they ditched the green socks: maybe Jay Feely’s conservatism has stifled them from continuing to go green?

3:12, TIM — Haven’t seen the ref yet. The three good refs I haven’t seen yet are McAulay, Corrente, and Carey. Looks like McAulay to me from a distance.

3:11, JOSH — Tim, it was Lowery and Rhodes on Wayne and I still think it’s valuable for Revis to be moving around because than Manning has to adjust and can’t always hit his first receiver. I could see the Colts running under 15 times, although I’d say it’s unlikely.

3:10, JOSH — Great Blitz: Looked like it was going to be overload middle and it was overload left.

Tim, who are the refs? And what are your thoughts on the matter?

3:09, TIM — Here’s my question for Josh: What are your thoughts on the Jets’ all-white uniforms? Why have they ditched the green socks? These uniforms would like 15-25% better with green socks.

3:09, JOHN S — At this point, given all the hype, any time the Colts complete a pass has gotten to be considered a colossal failure for Darrelle Revis, right?

3:08, TIM — Still want Lowery in the game and Revis moving all over the field, Josh? And shouldn’t the Colts run the ball fewer than 15 times today?

3:07, JOSH — Not necessarily: I think 45 would be the appropriate number for a Jets upset.

3:05, JOHN S — That’s a pretty optimistic number, Josh. I presume this means you foresee a Jets upset?

3:05, TIM — Does anyone else think Jim Nantz starring in a commercial with Peyton Manning raises questions about his journalistic integrity?

3:04, JOSH — What is the over-under on the word “poise” or its variants used to describe Mark Sanchez? I say 14.

3:01, TIM — I apologize we weren’t around to live-blog the pregame show, but, I mean, that’s the pregame show. I don’t want to say that a 24/7 cycle of “The NFL Today” is what airs in hell, but purgatory? I can definitely see it in purgatory.

2:58, JOSH — Before starting, a good note for the Jets is that Dwight Lowery is starting over Lito Sheppard. Sheppard got burned against Austin Collie in the Week 16 matchup against the Colts and was targeted a lot early on against the Chargers. For statistical support that Lowery gets burned less than Sheppard see this.  And, of course, there will be a lot heavy DB lining up, so Sheppard will surely be in plenty anyway, just probably not one-on-one with Collie.

2:57, TIM — Jordin Sparks just belted out the national anthem. Do I need to remind New Yorkers who sang the national anthem before Super Bowl XLII? Yeah, Jordin Sparks.



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7 responses to this post.

  1. Posted by Wey on January 24, 2010 at 3:24 PM

    the lowery that the jets should want in the game is nick lowery…that guy could kick

    Reply

  2. Posted by Wey on January 24, 2010 at 5:12 PM

    memo to colts fans: there’s only one twelfth man…and they cheer ’til they’re…seahawk chicks

    Reply

  3. Posted by Wey on January 24, 2010 at 6:15 PM

    Tim, the only reason the Bills hired Chan Gailey is that Bruce Coslet was not available…Thus, I do not appreciate your sarcasm

    Reply

  4. Posted by Tim on January 24, 2010 at 6:20 PM

    But Kotite was!

    If I were a Bills fan, I would have preferred the team to rehire Dick Jauron than hire Chan Gailey. At least Dick is likably mediocre.

    Reply

  5. Posted by Wey on January 24, 2010 at 6:24 PM

    I think they’re just trying to wait out ralph wilson

    Reply

  6. […] Aught Lang Syne « Championship Sunday Live-Blog: AFC Championship […]

    Reply

  7. Posted by doc on January 24, 2010 at 7:44 PM

    1st round the Jets pick a cornerback who even remotedly resembles Revis. Second round – a receiver who is fast and can catch. Then, sign a top defensive linemen as a free agent. Who cares about the rest – maybe 6th round a back-up QB. Oh, Sanchez was very impressive. He is learning quickly, has an accurate gun for an arm, and is better looking than either Manning.

    Reply

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