Every Game Counts…Week 8

 


Via The War Eagle Reader, Tim's Auburn Blog of Choice

 

In my neverending quest to rail against the BCS, I am calculating week-by-week how many games this college football season really “count” (as in, influence the national title picture).

After seven weeks, 98 of the 120 FBS teams cannot make the BCS championship (a refresher on my criteria), including pre-season No. 4 Florida. We can start breaking it down a little more now that we’re reducing the field.

Teams Who Can Afford a Loss:

These are teams that are undefeated in a BCS conference or who have one loss while having started the year in the Top 10 (and so can conceivably, like LSU in 2007, make the title game with two losses). I’d like to point out how lenient I’m being here. The way this season is going, Alabama and Ohio State are likely the only schools on this list that could make the title game with a loss. Furthermore, we’re getting to the point where we have to mathematically consider whether it is even conceivable for a team to make it with two losses.

Alabama

Auburn

Iowa

LSU

Michigan State

Missouri

Nebraska

Ohio State

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Oregon

Teams Who Will Officially Be Eliminated With Their Next Loss:

These are teams who have either one loss in a BCS conference or are undefeated in a non-AQ. Again, there’s a fair amount of leniency. Chances are, even if Kansas State runs the table, the title game isn’t calling. Only Boise State and TCU have any legit shot at the championship, and even their odds are slim at this point.

Arizona

Boise State

Florida State

Kansas State

Stanford

TCU

Texas

Utah

Virginia Tech

West Virginia

Wisconsin

Teams That Have Been Eliminated Since This Last Little Exercise of Ours (sorry about missing last week):

Arkansas

Baylor

Colorado

Florida

Illinois

Indiana

Maryland

Miami

Michigan

NC State

Nevada

South Carolina

South Florida

Syracuse

Texas A&M

All the Teams That Have Been Eliminated from Title Discussion (with when and why):

Air Force (4; MWC with a loss)

Akron (1; MAC team)

Arizona State (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Arkansas (8; SEC team with two losses)

Arkansas State (1; Sun Belt team)

Army (3; non-ND independent with a loss)

Ball State (1; MAC team)

Baylor (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Boston College (6; ACC team with two losses)

Bowling Green (1; MAC team)

Brigham Young (3; MWC with a loss)

Buffalo (1; MAC team)

California (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Central Michigan (1; MAC team)

Cincinnati (4; Big East team with two losses)

Clemson (6; ACC team with two losses)
Colorado (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Colorado State (2; MWC with a loss)

Connecticut (4; Big East team with two losses)

Duke (4; ACC team with two losses)

East Carolina (4; C-USA with a loss)

Eastern Michigan (1; MAC team)

Florida (8; SEC Top-10 team with three losses)

Florida Atlantic (1; Sun Belt team)

Florida International (1; Sun Belt team)

Fresno State (5; WAC with a loss)

Georgia (4; SEC team with two losses)

Georgia Tech (5; ACC team with two losses)

Hawaii (2; WAC with a loss)

Houston (4; C-USA with a loss)

Idaho (3; WAC with a loss)

Illinois (7; Big Ten team with two losses)

Indiana (7; Big Ten team with two losses)

Iowa State (4; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kansas (4; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kent State (1; MAC team)

Kentucky (6; SEC team with two losses)

Louisiana Tech (3; WAC with a loss)

Louisiana-Lafayette (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisiana-Monroe (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisville (4; Big East team with two losses)

Marshall (2; C-USA with a loss)

Maryland (8; ACC team with two losses)

Memphis (2; C-USA with a loss)

Miami (7; ACC team with two losses)

Miami, Ohio (1; MAC team)

Michigan (8; Big Ten team with two losses)

Middle Tennessee (1; Sun Belt team)

Minnesota (4; Big Ten team with two losses)

Mississippi (4; SEC team with two losses)

Mississippi State (4; SEC team with two losses)

Navy (2; non-ND independent with a loss)

NC State (8; ACC team with two losses)

Nevada (8; WAC with two losses)

New Mexico (2; MWC with a loss)

New Mexico State (3; WAC with a loss)

North Carolina (4; ACC team with two losses)

North Texas (1; Sun Belt team)

Northern Illinois (1; MAC team)

Notre Dame (4; independent with two losses)

Ohio (1; MAC team)

Oregon State (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Penn State (6; Big Ten team with two losses)

Pittsburgh (5; Big East team with two losses)

Purdue (5; Big Ten team with two losses)

Rice (2; C-USA with a loss)

Rutgers (6; Big East team with two losses)

San Diego State (4; MWC with a loss)

San Jose State (2; WAC with a loss)

SMU (2; C-USA with a loss)

South Carolina (8; SEC team with two losses)

South Florida (7; Big East team with two losses)

Southern Mississippi (2; C-USA with a loss)

Syracuse (8; Big East team with two losses)

Temple (1; MAC team)

Tennessee (4; SEC team with two losses)

Texas A&M (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Texas Tech (6; Big 12 team with two losses)

Toledo (1; MAC team)

Troy (1; Sun Belt team)

Tulane (3; C-USA with a loss)

Tulsa (2; C-USA with a loss)

UAB (2; C-USA with a loss)

UCF (3; C-USA with a loss)

UCLA (3; PAC-10 team with two losses)

UNLV (2; MWC with a loss)

USC (1; ineligible)

Utah State (2; WAC with a loss)

UTEP (3; C-USA with a loss)

Vanderbilt (3; SEC team with two losses)

Virginia (6; ACC team with two losses)

Wake Forest (5; ACC team with two losses)

Washington (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Washington State (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Western Kentucky (1; Sun Belt team)

Western Michigan (1; MAC team)

Wyoming (3; MWC with a loss)

***

And so the math for this week:

51 Week 6 Games Involving FBS Teams

35 Games Between Teams with No Chance to Make Title Game

16 Week 6 Games Count

31.4% of Week 6 Games Count

Yep, two weeks after crawling under the 50% barrier for the first time, fewer than one-third of the games matter.

***

After seven weeks:

426 Games Played

282 Counted

66.2% of Games in 2010 Have Counted

***

347 Games Involving FBS Teams Left in 2010 Season (including conference championships)

112 Games Left in 2010 Season Count

32.3% of Games Left in 2010 Season Count

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2 responses to this post.

  1. Posted by Lachy on October 23, 2010 at 8:45 PM

    You seem to be missing Northwestern, although I’m pretty sure that today’s loss has put them out of the picture anyway.

    Been following this all season, it’s kinda funny to see just how few teams still have a shot at the championship.

    Reply

    • Posted by Tim on October 23, 2010 at 8:55 PM

      Yes, the Wildcats were accidentally but presciently deleted from the Teams Who Will Be Officially Eliminated… List. If only I had accidentally deleted Texas, too, I would have been on to something.

      Reply

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