Every Game Counts…Week 10

In my neverending quest to rail against the BCS, I am calculating week-by-week how many games this college football season really “count” (as in, influence the national title picture).

After nine weeks, 102 of the 120 FBS teams cannot make the BCS championship (a refresher on my criteria), including old standby Florida State. We can start breaking it down a little more now that we’re reducing the field.

Teams Who Can Afford a Loss:

These are teams that are undefeated in a BCS conference or who have one loss while having started the year in the Top 10 (and so can conceivably, like LSU in 2007, make the title game with two losses). I’d like to point out how lenient I’m being here. The way this season is going, Alabama and Ohio State are likely the only schools on this list that could make the title game with a loss. Furthermore, we’re getting to the point where we have to mathematically consider whether it is even conceivable for a team to make it with two losses (looking at you, Virginia Tech).

Alabama

Auburn

Nebraska

Ohio State

Oklahoma

Oregon

Teams Who Will Officially Be Eliminated With Their Next Loss:

These are teams who have either one loss in a BCS conference or are undefeated in a non-AQ. Again, there’s a fair amount of leniency. Chances are, even if Arizona runs the table, the title game isn’t calling. Only Boise State and TCU have any legit shot at the championship, and even their odds are slim at this point.

Arizona

Boise State

Iowa

LSU

Michigan State

Missouri

Oklahoma State

Stanford

TCU

Utah

Virginia Tech

Wisconsin

Teams That Have Been Eliminated Since This Last Little Exercise of Ours:

Florida State

All the Teams That Have Been Eliminated from Title Discussion (with when and why):

Air Force (4; MWC with a loss)

Akron (1; MAC team)

Arizona State (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Arkansas (8; SEC team with two losses)

Arkansas State (1; Sun Belt team)

Army (3; non-ND independent with a loss)

Ball State (1; MAC team)

Baylor (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Boston College (6; ACC team with two losses)

Bowling Green (1; MAC team)

Brigham Young (3; MWC with a loss)

Buffalo (1; MAC team)

California (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Central Michigan (1; MAC team)

Cincinnati (4; Big East team with two losses)

Clemson (6; ACC team with two losses)
Colorado (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Colorado State (2; MWC with a loss)

Connecticut (4; Big East team with two losses)

Duke (4; ACC team with two losses)

East Carolina (4; C-USA with a loss)

Eastern Michigan (1; MAC team)

Florida (8; SEC Top-10 team with three losses)

Florida Atlantic (1; Sun Belt team)

Florida International (1; Sun Belt team)

Florida State (10; ACC team with two losses)

Fresno State (5; WAC with a loss)

Georgia (4; SEC team with two losses)

Georgia Tech (5; ACC team with two losses)

Hawaii (2; WAC with a loss)

Houston (4; C-USA with a loss)

Idaho (3; WAC with a loss)

Illinois (7; Big Ten team with two losses)

Indiana (7; Big Ten team with two losses)

Iowa State (4; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kansas (4; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kansas State (9; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kent State (1; MAC team)

Kentucky (6; SEC team with two losses)

Louisiana Tech (3; WAC with a loss)

Louisiana-Lafayette (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisiana-Monroe (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisville (4; Big East team with two losses)

Marshall (2; C-USA with a loss)

Maryland (8; ACC team with two losses)

Memphis (2; C-USA with a loss)

Miami (7; ACC team with two losses)

Miami, Ohio (1; MAC team)

Michigan (8; Big Ten team with two losses)

Middle Tennessee (1; Sun Belt team)

Minnesota (4; Big Ten team with two losses)

Mississippi (4; SEC team with two losses)

Mississippi State (4; SEC team with two losses)

Navy (2; non-ND independent with a loss)

NC State (8; ACC team with two losses)

Nevada (8; WAC with two losses)

New Mexico (2; MWC with a loss)

New Mexico State (3; WAC with a loss)

North Carolina (4; ACC team with two losses)

North Texas (1; Sun Belt team)

Northern Illinois (1; MAC team)

Northwestern (9; Big Ten team with two losses)

Notre Dame (4; independent with two losses)

Ohio (1; MAC team)

Oregon State (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Penn State (6; Big Ten team with two losses)

Pittsburgh (5; Big East team with two losses)

Purdue (5; Big Ten team with two losses)

Rice (2; C-USA with a loss)

Rutgers (6; Big East team with two losses)

San Diego State (4; MWC with a loss)

San Jose State (2; WAC with a loss)

SMU (2; C-USA with a loss)

South Carolina (8; SEC team with two losses)

South Florida (7; Big East team with two losses)

Southern Mississippi (2; C-USA with a loss)

Syracuse (8; Big East team with two losses)

Temple (1; MAC team)

Tennessee (4; SEC team with two losses)

Texas (9; preseason Top 10 team with three losses)

Texas A&M (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Texas Tech (6; Big 12 team with two losses)

Toledo (1; MAC team)

Troy (1; Sun Belt team)

Tulane (3; C-USA with a loss)

Tulsa (2; C-USA with a loss)

UAB (2; C-USA with a loss)

UCF (3; C-USA with a loss)

UCLA (3; PAC-10 team with two losses)

UNLV (2; MWC with a loss)

USC (1; ineligible)

Utah State (2; WAC with a loss)

UTEP (3; C-USA with a loss)

Vanderbilt (3; SEC team with two losses)

Virginia (6; ACC team with two losses)

Wake Forest (5; ACC team with two losses)

Washington (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Washington State (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)

West Virginia (9; Big East team with two losses)

Western Kentucky (1; Sun Belt team)

Western Michigan (1; MAC team)

Wyoming (3; MWC with a loss)

***

And so the math for this week:

55 Week 10 Games Involving FBS Teams

41 Games Between Teams with No Chance to Make Title Game

14 Week 10 Games Count

25.5% of Week 10 Games Count

More than one in every four!

We can even be real specific. Here are the 14 games that matter this week, including two elimination contests:

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech (Hokies survived)

Oklahoma at Texas A&M

Nebraska at Iowa State

Iowa at Indiana

Washington at Oregon

Wisconsin at Purdue

Chattanooga at Auburn

Arizona at Stanford (ELIMINATION GAME, but they’re both kinda eliminated anyway)

Minnesota at Michigan State

Baylor at Oklahoma State

Missouri at Texas Tech

Hawaii at Boise State

TCU at Utah (ELIMINATION GAME, but they’re both kinda eliminated anyway)

Alabama at LSU

***

After nine weeks:

532 Games Played

311 Counted

58.5% of Games in 2010 Have Counted

***

241 Games Involving FBS Teams Left in 2010 Season (including conference championships)

65 Games Left in 2010 Season Count

27.0% of Games Left in 2010 Season Count

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