Every Game Counts…Week 11

In my neverending quest to rail against the BCS, I am calculating week-by-week how many games this college football season really “count” (as in, influence the national title picture).

After 10 weeks, 105 of the 120 FBS teams cannot make the BCS championship (a refresher on my criteria), including up-until-recently unbeaten Utah. We can start breaking it down a little more now that we’re reducing the field.

Teams Who Can Afford a Loss:

These are teams that are undefeated in a BCS conference or who have one loss while having started the year in the Top 10 (and so can conceivably, like LSU in 2007, make the title game with two losses). I’d like to point out how lenient I’m being here. The way this season is going, Alabama and Ohio State are likely the only schools on this list that could make the title game with a loss. Furthermore, we’re getting to the point where we have to mathematically consider whether it is even conceivable for a team to make it with two losses (looking at you, Virginia Tech).

Alabama

Auburn

Nebraska

Ohio State

Oregon

Teams Who Will Officially Be Eliminated With Their Next Loss:

These are teams who have either one loss in a BCS conference or are undefeated in a non-AQ. Again, there’s a fair amount of leniency. Chances are, even if Iowa runs the table, the title game isn’t calling. Only Boise State and TCU have any legit shot at the championship, and even their odds are slim at this point.

Boise State

Iowa

LSU

Michigan State

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Stanford

TCU

Virginia Tech

Wisconsin

Teams That Have Been Eliminated Since This Last Little Exercise of Ours:

Arizona

Missouri

Utah

All the Teams That Have Been Eliminated from Title Discussion (with when and why):

Air Force (4; MWC with a loss)

Akron (1; MAC team)

Arizona (10; Pac-10 team with two losses)

Arizona State (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Arkansas (8; SEC team with two losses)

Arkansas State (1; Sun Belt team)

Army (3; non-ND independent with a loss)

Ball State (1; MAC team)

Baylor (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Boston College (6; ACC team with two losses)

Bowling Green (1; MAC team)

Brigham Young (3; MWC with a loss)

Buffalo (1; MAC team)

California (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Central Michigan (1; MAC team)

Cincinnati (4; Big East team with two losses)

Clemson (6; ACC team with two losses)
Colorado (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Colorado State (2; MWC with a loss)

Connecticut (4; Big East team with two losses)

Duke (4; ACC team with two losses)

East Carolina (4; C-USA with a loss)

Eastern Michigan (1; MAC team)

Florida (8; SEC Top-10 team with three losses)

Florida Atlantic (1; Sun Belt team)

Florida International (1; Sun Belt team)

Florida State (10; ACC team with two losses)

Fresno State (5; WAC with a loss)

Georgia (4; SEC team with two losses)

Georgia Tech (5; ACC team with two losses)

Hawaii (2; WAC with a loss)

Houston (4; C-USA with a loss)

Idaho (3; WAC with a loss)

Illinois (7; Big Ten team with two losses)

Indiana (7; Big Ten team with two losses)

Iowa State (4; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kansas (4; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kansas State (9; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kent State (1; MAC team)

Kentucky (6; SEC team with two losses)

Louisiana Tech (3; WAC with a loss)

Louisiana-Lafayette (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisiana-Monroe (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisville (4; Big East team with two losses)

Marshall (2; C-USA with a loss)

Maryland (8; ACC team with two losses)

Memphis (2; C-USA with a loss)

Miami (7; ACC team with two losses)

Miami, Ohio (1; MAC team)

Michigan (8; Big Ten team with two losses)

Middle Tennessee (1; Sun Belt team)

Minnesota (4; Big Ten team with two losses)

Mississippi (4; SEC team with two losses)

Mississippi State (4; SEC team with two losses)

Missouri (10; Big 12 team with two losses)

Navy (2; non-ND independent with a loss)

NC State (8; ACC team with two losses)

Nevada (8; WAC with two losses)

New Mexico (2; MWC with a loss)

New Mexico State (3; WAC with a loss)

North Carolina (4; ACC team with two losses)

North Texas (1; Sun Belt team)

Northern Illinois (1; MAC team)

Northwestern (9; Big Ten team with two losses)

Notre Dame (4; independent with two losses)

Ohio (1; MAC team)

Oregon State (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Penn State (6; Big Ten team with two losses)

Pittsburgh (5; Big East team with two losses)

Purdue (5; Big Ten team with two losses)

Rice (2; C-USA with a loss)

Rutgers (6; Big East team with two losses)

San Diego State (4; MWC with a loss)

San Jose State (2; WAC with a loss)

SMU (2; C-USA with a loss)

South Carolina (8; SEC team with two losses)

South Florida (7; Big East team with two losses)

Southern Mississippi (2; C-USA with a loss)

Syracuse (8; Big East team with two losses)

Temple (1; MAC team)

Tennessee (4; SEC team with two losses)

Texas (9; preseason Top 10 team with three losses)

Texas A&M (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Texas Tech (6; Big 12 team with two losses)

Toledo (1; MAC team)

Troy (1; Sun Belt team)

Tulane (3; C-USA with a loss)

Tulsa (2; C-USA with a loss)

UAB (2; C-USA with a loss)

UCF (3; C-USA with a loss)

UCLA (3; PAC-10 team with two losses)

UNLV (2; MWC with a loss)

USC (1; ineligible)

Utah (10; MWC with a loss)

Utah State (2; WAC with a loss)

UTEP (3; C-USA with a loss)

Vanderbilt (3; SEC team with two losses)

Virginia (6; ACC team with two losses)

Wake Forest (5; ACC team with two losses)

Washington (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Washington State (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)

West Virginia (9; Big East team with two losses)

Western Kentucky (1; Sun Belt team)

Western Michigan (1; MAC team)

Wyoming (3; MWC with a loss)

***

And so the math for this week:

56 Week 11 Games Involving FBS Teams

42 Games Between Teams with No Chance to Make Title Game

14 Week 11 Games Count

25.0% of Week 11 Games Count

One in every four! That’s pretty much “every game”!

We can even be real specific. Here are the 14 games that matter this week:

Boise State at Idaho (Broncos survived…barely)

Mississippi State at Alabama

Penn State at Ohio State

Oklahoma State at Texas

Texas Tech at Oklahoma

Kansas at Nebraska

Iowa at Northwestern

Virginia Tech at North Carolina

Oregon at California

Indiana at Wisconsin

Georgia at Auburn

Stanford at Arizona State

San Diego State at TCU

Louisiana-Monroe at LSU

***

After 10 weeks:

587 Games Played

325 Counted

55.4% of Games in 2010 Have Counted

***

186 Games Involving FBS Teams Left in 2010 Season (including conference championships)

44 Games Left in 2010 Season Count

23.7% of Games Left in 2010 Season Count

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2 responses to this post.

  1. Posted by Sabreena on November 13, 2010 at 8:36 PM

    Did you forget that Alabama lost last week? I think we can officially eliminate them from consideration.

    Reply

    • You got me. Alabama should be in the Teams Who Will Officially Be Eliminated With Their Next Loss category, since I did stipulate that a team starting in the Top 10 could conceivably make the title game with two losses (although it does grow more and more farfetched by the week).

      Reply

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