Every Game Counts…Week 12

 

In my neverending quest to rail against the BCS, I am calculating week-by-week how many games this college football season really “count” (as in, influence the national title picture).

After 11 weeks, 106 of the 120 FBS teams cannot make the BCS championship (a refresher on my criteria), including Bizarro Heisman Trophy candidate Ricky Stanzi and Iowa. We can start breaking it down a little more now that we’re reducing the field.

Teams Who Can Afford a Loss:

These are teams that are undefeated in a BCS conference or who have one loss while having started the year in the Top 10 (and so can conceivably, like LSU in 2007, make the title game with two losses). I’d like to point out how lenient I’m being here. The way this season is going, Alabama and Ohio State are likely the only schools on this list that could make the title game with a loss. Furthermore, we’re getting to the point where we have to mathematically consider whether it is even conceivable for a team to make it with two losses (looking at you, Virginia Tech). At this point, I feel very confident saying Auburn is the only school on this list that can conceivably make the title game even after a loss in the final three weeks.

Auburn

Nebraska

Ohio State

Oregon

Teams Who Will Officially Be Eliminated With Their Next Loss:

These are teams who have either one loss in a BCS conference or are undefeated in a non-AQ. Again, there’s a fair amount of leniency. Chances are, even if Alabama runs the table, the title game isn’t calling. Only Boise State, TCU, and LSU have any legit shot at the championship, and even their odds are slim at this point.

Alabama

Boise State

LSU

Michigan State

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Stanford

TCU

Virginia Tech

Wisconsin

Teams That Have Been Eliminated Since This Last Little Exercise of Ours:

Iowa

All the Teams That Have Been Eliminated from Title Discussion (with when and why):

Air Force (4; MWC with a loss)

Akron (1; MAC team)

Arizona (10; Pac-10 team with two losses)

Arizona State (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Arkansas (8; SEC team with two losses)

Arkansas State (1; Sun Belt team)

Army (3; non-ND independent with a loss)

Ball State (1; MAC team)

Baylor (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Boston College (6; ACC team with two losses)

Bowling Green (1; MAC team)

Brigham Young (3; MWC with a loss)

Buffalo (1; MAC team)

California (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Central Michigan (1; MAC team)

Cincinnati (4; Big East team with two losses)

Clemson (6; ACC team with two losses)

Colorado (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Colorado State (2; MWC with a loss)

Connecticut (4; Big East team with two losses)

Duke (4; ACC team with two losses)

East Carolina (4; C-USA with a loss)

Eastern Michigan (1; MAC team)

Florida (8; SEC Top-10 team with three losses)

Florida Atlantic (1; Sun Belt team)

Florida International (1; Sun Belt team)

Florida State (10; ACC team with two losses)

Fresno State (5; WAC with a loss)

Georgia (4; SEC team with two losses)

Georgia Tech (5; ACC team with two losses)

Hawaii (2; WAC with a loss)

Houston (4; C-USA with a loss)

Idaho (3; WAC with a loss)

Illinois (7; Big Ten team with two losses)

Indiana (7; Big Ten team with two losses)

Iowa (11; top-10 BCS team with three losses)

Iowa State (4; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kansas (4; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kansas State (9; Big 12 team with two losses)

Kent State (1; MAC team)

Kentucky (6; SEC team with two losses)

Louisiana Tech (3; WAC with a loss)

Louisiana-Lafayette (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisiana-Monroe (1; Sun Belt team)

Louisville (4; Big East team with two losses)

Marshall (2; C-USA with a loss)

Maryland (8; ACC team with two losses)

Memphis (2; C-USA with a loss)

Miami (7; ACC team with two losses)

Miami, Ohio (1; MAC team)

Michigan (8; Big Ten team with two losses)

Middle Tennessee (1; Sun Belt team)

Minnesota (4; Big Ten team with two losses)

Mississippi (4; SEC team with two losses)

Mississippi State (4; SEC team with two losses)

Missouri (10; Big 12 team with two losses)

Navy (2; non-ND independent with a loss)

NC State (8; ACC team with two losses)

Nevada (8; WAC with two losses)

New Mexico (2; MWC with a loss)

New Mexico State (3; WAC with a loss)

North Carolina (4; ACC team with two losses)

North Texas (1; Sun Belt team)

Northern Illinois (1; MAC team)

Northwestern (9; Big Ten team with two losses)

Notre Dame (4; independent with two losses)

Ohio (1; MAC team)

Oregon State (5; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Penn State (6; Big Ten team with two losses)

Pittsburgh (5; Big East team with two losses)

Purdue (5; Big Ten team with two losses)

Rice (2; C-USA with a loss)

Rutgers (6; Big East team with two losses)

San Diego State (4; MWC with a loss)

San Jose State (2; WAC with a loss)

SMU (2; C-USA with a loss)

South Carolina (8; SEC team with two losses)

South Florida (7; Big East team with two losses)

Southern Mississippi (2; C-USA with a loss)

Syracuse (8; Big East team with two losses)

Temple (1; MAC team)

Tennessee (4; SEC team with two losses)

Texas (9; preseason Top 10 team with three losses)

Texas A&M (7; Big 12 team with two losses)

Texas Tech (6; Big 12 team with two losses)

Toledo (1; MAC team)

Troy (1; Sun Belt team)

Tulane (3; C-USA with a loss)

Tulsa (2; C-USA with a loss)

UAB (2; C-USA with a loss)

UCF (3; C-USA with a loss)

UCLA (3; PAC-10 team with two losses)

UNLV (2; MWC with a loss)

USC (1; ineligible)

Utah (10; MWC with a loss)

Utah State (2; WAC with a loss)

UTEP (3; C-USA with a loss)

Vanderbilt (3; SEC team with two losses)

Virginia (6; ACC team with two losses)

Wake Forest (5; ACC team with two losses)

Washington (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)

Washington State (4; PAC-10 team with two losses)

West Virginia (9; Big East team with two losses)

Western Kentucky (1; Sun Belt team)

Western Michigan (1; MAC team)

Wyoming (3; MWC with a loss)

***

And so the math for this week:

56 Week 12 Games Involving FBS Teams

45 Games Between Teams with No Chance to Make Title Game

11 Week 12 Games Count

19.6% of Week 11 Games Count

We can even be real specific. Here are the 11 games that matter this week:

Georgia State at Alabama (won by the Tide)

Fresno State at Boise State (Broncos survived)

Ohio State at Iowa

Oklahoma at Baylor

Nebraska at Texas A&M

Virginia Tech at Miami

Wisconsin at Michigan

Purdue at Michigan State

Oklahoma State at Kansas

Stanford at California

Mississippi at LSU

***

After 11 weeks:

643 Games Played

339 Counted

52.7% of Games in 2010 Have Counted

***

130 Games Involving FBS Teams Left in 2010 Season (including conference championships)

29 Games Left in 2010 Season Count

22.3% of Games Left in 2010 Season Count

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One response to this post.

  1. nice post will check back later 🙂

    Reply

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