Posts Tagged ‘predictive bracketology’

In Search of 65, Selection Sunday

MIDWEST EAST SOUTH WEST
1 Kansas Kentucky Syracuse Duke
2 Georgetown Kansas State Ohio State West Virginia
3 New Mexico Villanova Baylor Purdue
4 Vanderbilt Maryland Temple Pittsburgh
5 Wisconsin Texas A&M Tennessee Michigan State
6 Gonzaga Xavier Butler BYU
7 Richmond Northern Iowa Marquette Texas
8 Louisville Saint Mary’s Oklahoma State UNLV
9 Georgia Tech Notre Dame Clemson Missouri
10 Virginia Tech Florida State UTEP Old Dominion
11 San Diego State Washington Wake Forest California
12 Siena Minnesota Murray State Utah State
13 Oakland Wofford New Mexico State Cornell
14 Houston Ohio Sam Houston State UCSB
15 North Texas Montana Vermont Morgan State
16 East Tennessee State Lehigh Winthrop v. UAPB Robert Morris

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In Search of 65, Week 1

You didn’t honestly expect us to do a weekly column on college basketball and not include bracket predictions (or a bracketology, as ESPN has conditioned us to call it), did you? My qualifications are as follows: This is, unbelievably to me, the eighth year I’ve tried to predict the field. I started before I knew who Joe Lunardi was and largely because I was sick of losing NCAA Tournament pools to people who didn’t know anything about college basketball. I decided to try to predict the field, which requires a much higher level of NCAA knowledge and is a lot more impressive than it sounds (it comes down to two or three teams a year).

In my seven previous tries, I’ve gotten 64, 64, 63, 62, 63, 64, and 64–which is nice and palindromic and leads me to believe this is the year I break the cycle and nail 65. Add it up and I’m 444/455, or 97.58% accurate. (For the record, yes, I did leave George Mason out in 2006 and I stand by it. Last year it was Arizona.)

Now, the key difference between my bracket and those offered by Lunardi and most everyone else on the Internet right now is that mine is predictive; it is NOT a reflection of what the Tournament would look like if it started today. That’s why my bracket includes teams like Louisville and Marquette–who I expect to get important wins down the stretch–and not someone like Oklahoma State–who I expect to slip in the Big 12. I admit that my knowledge of the lower conferences is sketchy at best; I haven’t seen those teams to play and err on the side of conservatism in choosing who to take from the SWAC and its ilk. Most of those selections are the team that’s currently leading the conference. Continue reading